収益物件は数字から、次に建物

Thesis

Gross yield is not the investment case.

It is a first screen. Nothing more.

Japan has real income opportunities, but the market is full of assets that look attractive only because the first number is doing too much work. Serious investors need rent, cost, debt, building quality, legal status, and exit liquidity in the same frame.

Station Distance Is A Demand Filter

Residential demand in Japan is highly sensitive to station access.

Property portals segment walk time because tenants and buyers do. Common search bands include within 5 minutes, 7 minutes, 10 minutes, and 15 minutes. Those thresholds matter because they shape visibility, tenant demand, and resale demand.

Underwriting view:

• **Within 5 minutes:** strongest convenience band; usually the deepest tenant and resale pool.
• **6-7 minutes:** still strong, but no longer the top band.
• **8-10 minutes:** workable, but price and building quality need to justify it.
• **11-15 minutes:** more sensitive; vacancy and exit assumptions need caution.
• **Beyond 15 minutes:** needs a specific thesis.

The exact impact depends on line, station, slope, neighborhood, unit size, tenant profile, and price. But the direction is not complicated: worse access usually means thinner demand.

Gross Yield: The Marketing Number

Formula:

```text Annual rent / Purchase price = Gross yield ```

Example:

```text Monthly rent: JPY 250,000 Annual rent: JPY 3,000,000 Purchase price: JPY 60,000,000

Gross yield: 5.0% ```

That is the brochure number.

Net Yield: The Ownership Number

Now apply realistic costs:

```text Management fee: JPY 18,000/month = JPY 216,000/year 修繕積立金 (repair reserve): JPY 14,000/month = JPY 168,000/year Property management: 5% of rent = JPY 150,000/year Fixed asset / city planning tax estimate: JPY 180,000/year Insurance / minor repairs / leasing allowance: JPY 186,000/year

Estimated annual costs: JPY 900,000 Net operating income before loan: JPY 2,100,000 ```

On the same JPY 60,000,000 purchase:

```text Net yield before loan: 3.5% ```

Same asset. Different truth.

Add Debt

Assume 60% financing:

```text Loan amount: JPY 36,000,000 Interest rate: 2.5% Annual interest-only cost: JPY 900,000 ```

Simplified pre-tax cash flow before principal:

```text Net operating income before loan: JPY 2,100,000 Interest cost: JPY 900,000 Pre-tax cash flow before principal: JPY 1,200,000 ```

Equity:

```text Purchase price: JPY 60,000,000 Loan: JPY 36,000,000 Equity before acquisition costs: JPY 24,000,000 ```

Cash-on-cash before principal and tax:

```text JPY 1,200,000 / JPY 24,000,000 = 5.0% ```

This is still simplified. Real underwriting includes principal repayment, acquisition costs, taxes, vacancy, leasing cost, repairs, depreciation, and sale assumptions.

But the point is clear: gross yield is not enough.

High Yield Needs An Explanation

If the yield is high, ask why.

Possible answers:

• old building;
• weak station access;
• small unit;
• leasehold land;
• 再建築不可 (not rebuildable) status;
• private road issue;
• poor seismic profile;
• high vacancy area;
• rent above market;
• high monthly fees;
• limited bank financing.

High yield is not proof of quality. In weak assets, it is a warning label.

Off-Market Returns

Good income assets trade quietly. Clean legal status, strong rent, bankable collateral, and realistic upside do not need mass marketing.

That is why access matters.

But access without discipline creates problems. A private deal with bad road status, weak seismic numbers, or no financing market is not special. It is just undistributed risk.

Kagura's View

We like numbers. We do not like lazy numbers.

Gross yield screens the deal. Net yield tests it. Debt stress-tests it. Building quality, legal status, and exit liquidity decide whether it deserves capital.

If the building is bad, the spreadsheet does not matter.