不動産市場を読む
すべてのガイドと分析に戻る公的資料や市場データをもとに、日本と首都圏の不動産市場の動きを分かりやすく解説します。
East Japan REINS data show a 50% rise in the metropolitan-region completed price per square metre from 2020 to 2025. The harder conclusion is that buyers were also purchasing smaller and older units, while reporting changes complicate the apparent surge in transaction volume.
Greater Tokyo used-condominium price per square metre rose 7.9% in 2025, but the 31.9% completed-volume jump carries an explicit REINS system-change warning. Average completed age rose to 26.58 years.
In April–June 2026, greater Tokyo used-condominium completed pricing was approximately flat year on year, completed volume fell 2.0% and inventory rose 3.5%. This is a quarterly observation, not a full-year verdict.
A useful comparable set controls transaction status, date, location, tenure, building, unit and condition. It explains every inclusion and adjustment instead of averaging a postcode.
Central and outer Tokyo are not one risk ladder. Compare entry price, tenant depth, household fit, building age, yield, redevelopment exposure and exit buyer at the property level.
Compare wards as a screening layer using official population, housing, hazards, transport, planning and transaction evidence—then move down to station, neighbourhood, building and unit.
A strong station and weak block can coexist. Inspect the parcel, access route and changing surroundings at relevant times, then connect each finding to use, cost, rent, insurance and exit.
Japanese property documents can use exclusive, wall-centre, registered, total floor or land area. A price-per-square-metre comparison is valid only when the area basis and asset are aligned.
Choose a regional second-home market through use frequency, access resilience, climate, utilities, management, regulation, year-round services, operating cost and realistic exit depth.
“Five minutes from the station” is not a transport analysis. Test the measured route, entrance, platform time, service pattern, transfers, disruption alternatives and the tenant or buyer's actual destinations.
A named redevelopment is not an investment case by itself. Test the official project, delivery risk, connection to the property, rent evidence, price premium, and downside before treating future change as value.
Tokyo-versus-Osaka is too broad to underwrite. Compare exact renter, transport, price, achieved income, supply, building capital, management and exit buyer using the same definitions.
Yokohama and Kawasaki are not one cheaper-Tokyo trade. Compare corridor, destination access, municipal evidence, housing product, hazards, price, income and exit at the station and property level.
A four-week diligence schedule that sequences ownership, funding, title, roads, building, condominium, inspection, tax, translation, and contract decisions without false certainty.
Cash removes lender approval, not transaction risk. Build the ownership, source-of-funds, currency, remittance, diligence, registration, and post-closing plan before offering.
A decision-led sequence for buying Japanese property, showing what must be established before the offer, contract, settlement, registration, and first year of ownership.
The buyer acquires a lease relationship as well as real estate. Reconcile tenant rights, rent, deposits, guarantees, management, condition, and handover before pricing the income.
Foreign nationality or nonresidence does not create a general ban on buying ordinary Japanese real estate. Ownership, regulatory reporting, mortgage eligibility, tax administration and permitted use are separate questions.
Choose the owner before the offer by testing control, funding, finance, tax, succession, accounting, and exit. A late change can restart documentation and underwriting.
Foreign buyers can own ordinary Japanese real estate, but nationality, residence, location, land type, and transaction structure can trigger separate reporting or notification work.
The important-matters explanation is a pre-contract decision document. Use it to reconcile title, roads, planning, building, management, occupancy, money, and cancellation before the sale contract is signed.
A property offer can move quickly in Japan. Prepare the identity, funding, authority, translation, and post-acquisition reporting documents before a suitable asset appears.
Settlement is a coordinated exchange of money, registrable title, mortgage discharge, possession, adjustments, and filing. Prepare the closing package and reconciliation before funds move.
The familiar three-percent formula is a statutory maximum shortcut for an ordinary high-value sale, not an automatic fixed fee. Read the engagement, representation, tax, and payment terms.
A strong offer is an executable proposal, not simply a discount request. Define the buyer, evidence, conditions, deposit, dates, and unresolved risks before signing an application.
New and resale property require different evidence. Compare completion risk, warranties, management formation, actual condition, repair history, price evidence, finance, and exit.
Overseas execution works when authority, identity, registry evidence, originals, translation, and timing are designed before contract—not assembled in the closing week.
Reconcile registered area, maps, surveys, boundary markers, occupation, setbacks, structures, drainage, and neighbour agreements before treating land area as usable or deliverable.
A clean interior inspection does not prove legal compliance. Reconcile the approved building, completed building, registered building, and building that physically exists today.
Nominal zoning percentages are not a buildable-volume guarantee. Reconcile legal site area, road width, setbacks, fire and height controls, design, existing rights, and approval evidence.
Ownership of the unit does not create unlimited alteration rights. Test private and common elements, structure, wet areas, services, flooring, approvals, contractors, neighbours, and resale before budgeting.
A condominium unit cannot be assessed from the apartment alone. Review the association's decisions, accounts, repair plan, rules, arrears, and known building work before committing.
Complex shared equipment can create step-change costs. Review inventory, age, service, utilisation, renewal scope, safety, contracts, funding, and decommissioning before buying the unit.
A building condition investigation is a defined visual review, not a warranty or full engineering survey. Use its scope and findings to commission targeted evidence and price work.
Leasehold is not discounted freehold. Price the term, rent, consent, renewal or expiry, rebuilding, mortgage, restoration, succession, and exit from the actual agreement.
Age is a screening fact, not a verdict. The decision depends on building records, seismic evidence, current condition, association governance, repair funding and the buyer's renovation and exit plan.
“New seismic” is a screening label, not a building diagnosis. Verify the building-confirmation date, structure, alterations, condition, ground, management, and any seismic assessment.
Hazard maps are scenario evidence, not pass-fail certificates. Read the current municipal layers, depth and mechanism, floor level, access, utilities, evacuation, insurance, and building resilience together.
Physical access is not enough. Identify the legal road, ownership shares, passage, excavation, setback, vehicles, utilities, maintenance, and successor rights before buying.
Registry records identify legal property and registered rights, but they do not prove boundaries, condition, compliance, use, or value. Reconcile every record to the physical and administrative asset.
Reconcile the long-term repair plan with cash, contributions, timing, inflation, arrears, borrowing, and unit allocation. A reserve balance alone cannot show whether the building is funded.
A road visible outside the gate may not satisfy the Building Standards Act. Confirm its legal category, width, frontage, boundary, ownership, and setback before valuing the land.
Map each service from public network to building and establish ownership, capacity, rights, condition, upgrade cost, drainage, and retaining-wall responsibility before pricing the site.
Occupancy limits access and transfers obligations. Test the lease, payment, deposit, guarantee, notices, condition evidence, management, use, privacy, and vacant-possession assumptions.
A mismatch can affect title, compliance, tax, finance, insurance, renovation, and resale. Identify the work, approval history, measurement, correction route, and seller responsibility before contract.
Japanese real-estate gain depends on sale proceeds, supported acquisition basis, capital improvements, depreciation, disposal costs, ownership period at 1 January, relief, and taxpayer facts.
Ownership eligibility and mortgage eligibility are different questions. Build the borrower, property, purpose, documentation, and cash plan before relying on leverage.
Annual property tax uses official assessed values and local rules, not market price. Reconcile taxpayer date, land and building bases, relief, settlement adjustment, notices, and ownership cash flow.
There is no single closing-cost percentage for every Japanese property. Brokerage, registration, acquisition tax, stamps, finance, diligence and initial work use different tax bases and payment dates.
Compare structures over acquisition, funding, annual operation, distributions, personal use, finance, succession, sale, and closure. An isolated tax rate cannot choose the owner.
Build a cross-border succession file around title, owner and heir status, wills, authority, tax scope, valuation, debt, company shares, registration, deadlines, and property operation.
Mortgage availability follows the borrower, purpose, property, security, documentation, and lender—not nationality alone. Build a route from current named-product evidence.
Build taxable rental income from Japanese-source receipts, allowable expenses, land-building basis, depreciation, withholding credits, ownership structure, filings, and evidence—not headline rent.
A worked acquisition budget showing brokerage, tax, registration, finance, diligence, adjustments, initial work, and liquidity—without pretending every charge is calculated from the asking price.
Land and building must be separated because depreciation, consumption tax, assessment, lender value, and sale basis treat them differently. Use a documented allocation and fixed-asset register.
Design an auditable yen funding chain from buyer to settlement, with source evidence, account acceptance, cut-offs, currency sensitivity, fraud controls, tax classification, and contingency.
Japanese withholding can place collection duties on the buyer or tenant. Identify residence, payer, use, amount, exceptions, gross payment, certificates, filings, and settlement before money moves.
Real-estate acquisition tax is generally based on the official assessed value under current prefectural rules, not simply the sale price. Model land and building separately and reserve for the later notice.
These are separate taxes with different documents, events, bases, rates, and relief. Model the sale contract, land, building, ownership registration, and mortgage from current NTA rules.
Unit and whole-building investments allocate control, concentration, capital expenditure, finance and exit risk differently. Compare the operating systems, not just headline yield.
Separate refundable liabilities, earned receipts, agent fees, tenant charges, restoration deductions, and timing. Initial-cost labels do not all belong in recurring rental yield.
A defensible exit model separates future operating income, the likely buyer pool, transaction costs, tax, debt repayment and evidence about market liquidity.
A 4.8% advertised yield can become a 2.9% property-level return and negative cash flow after realistic operating costs and debt. This example shows each step.
A property is not a viable short-stay investment merely because national minpaku registration exists. The address, operating regime, local ordinance, building rules, fire requirements, management plan and realistic night count must all agree.
Overseas ownership needs a Japanese operating system for rent, withholding, tax filings, notices, repairs, tenant events, and building decisions—not only a property manager collecting rent.
The lease type changes renewal and possession assumptions. Verify execution, explanation, notice, rent, termination, guarantee, restoration, and actual history rather than trusting an expiry column.
A capital reserve should be built from component lives, current condition, responsibility boundaries and timed cash needs—not a generic percentage of rent.
Reconcile every unit to leases, receipts, deposits, guarantees, occupancy, floor area, expenses, and market evidence. A seller spreadsheet is a starting index, not verified income.
“Guaranteed rent” can mean tenant-payment cover, master lease, vacancy support, or marketing shorthand. Identify the counterparty, covered amount, revision, exclusions, termination, repairs, and owner duties.
Choose the manager by authority, controls, reporting, leasing, repair, tenant-money, emergency, tax-document, and handover capability—not a single percentage fee.
Asking-rent screenshots are a supply sample, not proof of achieved rent or leasing speed. Test demand with lease evidence, turnover outcomes, population and household data, competing stock, and a controlled leasing experiment.
Model tenant departure as a sequence of lost rent, notice, restoration, leasing, incentives, new rent, and cash timing. A single annual vacancy percentage hides the failure path.
A Japanese property's yen return and an overseas owner's home-currency return are different calculations. Separate acquisition conversion, operating cash, debt, tax and exit proceeds before judging performance.
Overseas condominium owners should register contact details, read meeting packs, track quorum and resolutions, use valid proxies or written votes, and preserve a governance record.
A vacant home needs a documented inspection, ventilation, water, security, mail, landscape, insurance and emergency routine. Vacancy is an operating condition, not the absence of work.
Resolve title, authority, tax basis, documents, condition, tenancy and sale route before pricing. Preparation makes the comparable set and net-proceeds model credible.
Verify insured property, perils, earthquake treatment, valuation basis, exclusions, vacancy or rental use, liability, claim contact and evidence. A premium quote alone is not coverage analysis.
Remote ownership works when authority, money, documents, inspections, emergencies and annual obligations are assigned before anything goes wrong.
A resort home needs an operating plan for access, climate, inspections, taxes, local building rules, hazards, short-term letting, and resale—not only a purchase budget and a view.
A non-resident sale requires early coordination of authority, registration, tax basis, purchaser withholding, settlement funds and post-closing filing. Withholding is not necessarily the final tax.
A succession file connects Japanese title, owner identity, wills, heirs, tax, debt, managers, keys and urgent property operations so incapacity or death does not leave an unusable asset.
Non-resident owners need a dated responsibility calendar for Japanese tax, notices, bank cash, property records and professional authority. Ownership does not operate itself from abroad.
Turn inspections, service history, component condition and condominium plans into a year-by-year cash schedule with base, early-failure and inflation cases.
Greater Tokyo used-condominium completions fell in 2020, but average completed price and price per square metre rose. The year demonstrates why volume interruption should not be described as an annual price collapse.
Greater Tokyo used-condominium completions recovered 11.1% in 2021 while average completed price per square metre rose 8.4%. The average transacted unit also became slightly smaller and older.
Greater Tokyo used-condominium completed sales fell 11.0% in 2022, but completed price per square metre rose 12.4%. A registration-definition change also breaks naive supply comparisons.
Greater Tokyo used-condominium completions stabilised in 2023 while price per square metre rose 6.9%, average price reached JPY 45.75 million and the transacted stock continued to age.
Greater Tokyo used-condominium completed volume increased 3.4% in 2024 while price per square metre and average price each rose about 6.9%. Average completed age reached 24.53 years.